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Yes, there is a shortage. The more useful question is what employers are actually doing about it, and the answer to that one is uncomfortable.
Jobs and Skills Australia's assessment, published in its national skills shortage work:
For comparison, Professionals sat at 48% and Community and Personal Service Workers at 24%.
Note on currency: these figures come from JSA's 2023 assessment cycle. The direction has been consistent since 2021 but check the current Occupation Shortage List before quoting the specific numbers.
Only 1% of employers adjusted remuneration in 2023 to address skills shortages.
Read that again. Half of trades occupations in shortage. One per cent of employers responded by moving on pay.
That is the whole picture in one number. The market is genuinely tight, and almost nobody is competing on the most obvious lever.
Which means two things, and they point in opposite directions depending on who you are:
If you are an employer complaining about a shortage while advertising at the same number you paid in 2023, you are part of the 99%. The shortage is real, but so is the fact that you have not responded to it.
If you are willing to move on pay, you are competing against a field that largely will not. That is a far weaker field than "shortage" implies.
JSA rates occupations as in No Shortage, Regional Shortage, Metropolitan Shortage, or national Shortage, at both national and state level. The methodology combines employer surveys, stakeholder input, machine learning analysis and agency feedback.
The threshold worth knowing: a vacancy fill rate below 67% indicates a high chance of shortage. That is the benchmark against which your own fill rate should be read.
JSA's data shows shortages are markedly worse outside metropolitan areas. In Very Remote areas, over 80% of employers cited job location as the reason they received few applicants, and more than 40% reported suitable candidates declining offers because of location.
Queensland has more of its economy outside the south-east corner than most states. If you are hiring in Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay or further out, location is doing more damage to your applicant flow than your salary is.
The market has partly answered this itself. SEEK puts refrigeration mechanics in Gladstone and Central Queensland at $120,000, well above the national band of $85,000-$105,000. Regional Queensland already pays a location premium. If you are regional and not paying one, you are competing against employers who are.
Check your own fill rate against 67%. If you are filling fewer than two thirds of your vacancies, you are in the shortage band and can stop wondering.
Decide honestly whether you have responded to the shortage or just described it. If your pay has not moved since 2023, you have described it.
If you are regional, price location deliberately. It is the single biggest driver of declined offers in the data.
HJ Recruitment places permanent electrical, plumbing, HVAC and refrigeration, fire and solar tradespeople with Australian employers, from our base in Brisbane.
Sources- Jobs and Skills Australia - Current skills shortages- Jobs and Skills Australia - Occupation Shortage List- SEEK - Refrigeration Mechanic salary, Australia
